Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Brazil Economists Reduce 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts to 1.64% - Survey

From NASDAQ:  Brazil Economists Reduce 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts to 1.64% - Survey

SAO PAULO--Financial market analysts and economists have reduced their forecast for Brazil's economic expansion this year for the fifth consecutive week, after weak economic performance so far this year, according to the weekly central bank survey released Monday. <P>
Analysts reduced their view for economic exp ansion for 2012 to 1.64% growth in gross domestic product, from growth of 1.73% the previous week. <P>
On Friday, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE, showed that the country's economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years in the second quarter. <P>
Brazil's gross domestic product expanded 0.5% in the second quarter compared with the second quarter of 2011. That was less than economists' forecast for 0.7%, and the economy's worst performance since contracting 1.5% in the third quarter of 2009. Brazil's GDP also advanced 0.4% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, for an annualized growth rate of 1.6%. <P>
In the meantime, analysts keep their forecast for Brazil's GDP growth for next year at 4%. <P>
The central bank's weekly survey tracks the opinions of 100 analysts and economists and reports the average of their expectations. <P>
Market analysts and economists increased their forecast for Brazil's 2012 year-end inflation for the eighth consecutive week, to 5.20% from 5.19%. <P>
The inflation view for the end of 2013 was raised to 5.51% from 5.5%. Brazil's inflation rate was 6.5% last year, the highest since 7.6% in 2004. <P>
The average forecast for the benchmark Selic interest rate for the end of 2012 was maintained at 7.25%, while analysts' outlook for the next year increased to 8.50% from 8.25%. The rate is currently at 7.5%. <P>
The average expectation for Brazil's debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of this year was maintained at 35.25%. <P>
The forecast for this year's trade surplus was increased slightly to $18.04 billion from $18 billion. Economists expect Brazil to post a current-account deficit of $58.80 billion at the end of this year. <P>
Brazil's currency, the real, is expected to end this year at BRL2.00 to the dollar, according to the survey.


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